Signs The Coronavirus Pandemic is far from over

Image courtesy: Unsplash https://unsplash.com/photos/uICNFvg2H0o

More countries are reporting more cases of new COVID-19 cases every day, and data for the global pictures shows that the pandemic is far from over. Data from COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at Johns Hopkins University (JHU) shows that daily cases are increasing compared to the first wave of COVID-19.

COVID-19 Daily cases

How has the COVID-19 trend has evolved over the past weeks?

The situation has improved slightly in the past week but case numbers have increased in 95 countries. In those 95 countries over 30 countries have twice as many new cases, 65 countries have more new cases. Additionally, 8 countries have the same number of new cases, over 97 countries have fewer new cases, 5 less than half as many new cases and only 8 countries have zero new cases for the past four weeks in a row out of 213 countries and territories. (Source: COVID-19 trend)

What is the current COVID-19 trend in my country?

According to the reports about COVID-19 cases, below image summarizes the data of every country as follows:

The pace at which the new cases are being logged in the United States, Europe, are alarming. Due to the holiday and winter countries struggling to contain it, with new strain COVID-19 in the UK. It even gets us more doubtful if the situation will over with vaccines, as herd immunity is a long way in the future. People struggling with mental, physical health, and economic — unlike any other time new graduates find it difficult to get a job and some even experienced people lose their job.

1. The number of people getting infected on a rise.

Epidemiologists worry when the rate of new infections ratchets up from linear to exponential, doubling every few days instead of every few weeks. With the current situation, we have vaccines around the corner it might start next month (Jan 2021). “We’re likely to see massive explosions of cases and outbreaks that could potentially make what we’ve seen so far look like it hasn’t been that much,” Mina told a group of reporters recently.

Some even suggested that forget about the second, third wave of Covid-19, think instead of a wave that went into a swimming pool, and now it's sloshing around, suggests Roger Shapiro, MD, Associate Professor of Immunology and Infectious Diseases at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

2. The viral season has just started

The high number of cases with opening of schools, colleges, restaurants, holiday, cooler weather and potentially making the virus itself more virulent. Today Spain surpasses 50,000 virus deaths, New York state’s positive test rate reached its highest point since May 8.3% (Source: The New York Times).

Just only in the US more people were screened “about 3.8 million people passed through Transportation Safety Administration travel checkpoints between Dec. 23 and Dec. 26, compared with 9.5 million on those days last year.” Total infections surpassed 19 million on Saturday, meaning that at least 1 in 17 people have contracted the virus over the course of the pandemic. And the virus has killed more than 333,000 people — one in every thousand in the country.

3. Young people are being infected more.

In the early stages when the pandemic started out in infected nursing homes and already weak/unhealthy older people.

Source: Coronavirus (COVID-19) case numbers by age group and gender in Germany 2020 published at Statista

Currently, the number of young people getting affected is soaring up, and we are not sure about the numbers as well. As most of the young adults are asymptomatic, it gets hard as they can spread it unknowingly.

Source: International Health Regulation (IHR 2005) reports; case report forms; aggregated data from Italy and Spain.

From the above graph it is clear that the number of young people die because of COVID-19 is very low. The problem of asymptomatic transfer of virus makes it harder to track and protect in the younger age group.

4. vaccination drive just around the corner

Vaccinating a country and its inhabitants at speed is an enormous challenge. Immense work is already going into logistics and distribution plans, even before a vaccine is formally cleared for use in Germany.

Germany’s federal and state governments came up with their “national vaccination strategy” early in November. It aims to build up infrastructure as quickly as possible to enable mass-vaccination programs. The work is a little complex and ad hoc, not least because, as the 15-page document concedes, it’s not yet clear which vaccines will be available when, and in what quantities.

The elderly and healthcare workers may come first

When it comes to Germany, US, Britain, Japan and few other counties have a plan on how to mass vaccinate the country and its inhabitants, but still most country have not decided on the process. Eventually it depends on how long this first phase will last, when prioritizing patients will be necessary, depends on how quickly pharmaceutical companies can churn out their wares, and whether vaccines emerge which can be more easily stored in traditional refrigeration units.

Below figures gives an idea of production capabilities of vaccine by different countries.

5. The economy is being prioritized over health

Scientists are well aware that lockdowns are economically painful. They argue, however, that the economy can’t be healthy if the people aren’t healthy.

There is Hope is still there. Everything will be fine very soon, stay healthy.

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